Publication Categories

The transition process of the Romanian economy motivated the design of a model that provides for a parsimonious representation of the structure of the economy, exploits the increased availability of data for the system of national accounts, and recognizes time-variant parameters that can result from the transition process. The major features of the model include (1) the simultaneous determination of the overall production and expenditures of the Romanian economy, (2) the development of income concepts by sector, (3) the determination of wages and prices in each sector, and (4) the determination of value added by the primary and secondary sector within the system of equations. The results allow for considerable flexibility in its usage for forecasting, selection of the policy mix and instruments for the targets of a program, and the determination of the appropriate sequencing of policies. USAID/Romania and National Commission for Economic Forecasting of the Council for Coordination, Strategy, and Economic Reform of the Government of Romania (72 pages). August 1993.

The comprehensive economic reform program instituted by the Government of Kazakhstan gave rise to a need for an analytical framework to coordinate a broad set of macroeconomic policies and structural adjustments required to sustain the country's transition to an independent and open market economy. The conceptual approach adopted for this project is based on conventional economic theory, although the empirical specification of the theory is not well established in standard macro models. The system formulated explicitly introduced into the system of equations the channels through which economic policies operate. The nature of the model therefore makes it tractable from an operational point of view, and it provides the basis for subsequent extensions of the real and financial sectors, and in both the domestic and external sectors of the economy of Kazakhstan.USAID/Romania (123 pages). December 1994.

Provides analysis for a practical action planto implement pro-poor policies through macroeconomic initiatives. The study covers sequencing and implementation issues and provides estimates of both macro and significant microeconomic impacts. The major components of the study are (a) a general dynamic macroeconomic model of the impact of tariff reform that forecasts the likely impact on overall economic activity, fiscal revenues, inflation, unemployment, balance of payment and the exchange rate; (b) a partial-equilibrium analysis at the product-specific level; (c) sector and industry specific analyses; and (d) economy-wide analysis using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Asian Development Bank. March 2001.

The report assesses and prioritizes commercial opportunities for agriculture in the Maldives as part of the Technical Assistance (TA) Project on Commercialization of Agriculture. Data and other information collected for the analysis of the agriculture subsector, however, preceded the 26 December 2004 tsunamis that devastated many of the islands, including those involved in agricultural activities. As a result, much of the subsequent work has focused on assessing the damage and its impact on the country’s agricultural commercialization potential. The findings in this report indicate that most of the effects of the tsunami will manifest themselves over the next 6-12 months in terms of a general economic slowdown in the country but that the potential for agricultural commercialization remains strong.

The report describes preparation of the MSME Development Project Loan is to support the Government’s efforts to (i) develop the entrepreneurial climate and support services that will facilitate growth, (ii) provide the necessary conditions for converting existing entrepreneurial potential into innovative and successful business activities, (iii) attract entrepreneurial leadership from other regions of the country, and (iv) establish broader regional centers for SME activities that are driven by growth nodes or networked clusters for supporting activities.

The study examines alternative value chains for organic vegetables along the Greater Mekong Subregion's (GMS) East-West Economic Corridor (EWEC). It maps the organic vegetables value chain in the East West Economic Corridor (EWEC). It covers horizontal and vertical linkages, information and support services, price differentials, and packaging, branding and certification processes in an effort to identify strengths and challenges for an action plan in the value chain.

Examines the steps that Jordan must take in its negotiations with the WTO Government Procurement Committee to accede to the Government Procurement Agreement (GPA). Those negotiations involve two separate mechanisms: (a) the so-called ‘initial entity offer’ for the Appendices containing the threshold value of supplies of goods and services directed to specific entities, and (b) the reform of national legislation to bring it in line with the provisions of the Agreement. United States Agency for International Development (USAID). April 2002

The study supports efforts by the Government of Uzbekistan to examine alternative liberalization strategies during the WTO negotiations. It reports on the results of an empirical and interactive model that measures the effects of alternative tariff reduction schemes on the economy. Product-specific estimates are provided for the direct effects of Uzbekistan’s trade liberalization in terms of trade creation, trade diversion, balance of payments, government revenue and consumer welfare. The calculations of these effects are based on import demand relationships estimated for individual products at the detailed tariff line. These estimates take into account changes in the levels of import demand arising from market access concessions, and time-related adjustments arising from the lagged response of imports to economic activity and price changes. USAID Regional Mission for Central Asia (75 pages). March 1998.

This study examines the global linkages of selected ASEAN countries composed of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand (hereafter ASEAN-5). While economic growth of each country undoubtedly hinges on domestic developments, it also depends on foreign trade and capital movements in the form of direct and portfolio investments. These external influences are largely driven by global developments, particularly in Japan, other Northeast Asian countries, the United States, the European Union, and within the ASEAN region. While the systematic determinants of the ASEAN-5 countries’ linkages to these regions are relatively stable and robust, our focus is on the short-term dynamics underlying the transmission of income, price and other changes from the global economy.

Summary: Develops a parsimonious representation of the macro economy of Bangladesh. It aims to serve a dual purpose. First, it provides a framework for making rational and consistent predictions about Bangladesh's overall economic activity, the standard components of the balance of payments, the expenditure concepts of the national accounts, and the financial sector balances. Secondly, it offers a means of quantitatively evaluating the impact of alternative policy reforms on the economy, and assessing the feedback effects that changes in key macroeconomic variables of the economy produce in other sectors. The modeling procedure as sought to account for the structure of the Bangladesh economy, the availability of data, and the degree of stability of time-series estimates of parameters. The study was undertaken between July and October 2001. At the onset, discussions were held with government officials on macroeconomic policy and data availability, and documents and studies related to macroeconomic issues in Bangladesh were reviewed. Based on those data and reports, a macroeconomic model was formulated using Eviews software, and simulations with the model were linked to an Excel spreadsheet to facilitate its use. Asian Development Bank. January 2001.

The present macroeconomic model aims to provide a theory-consistent representation of the general structure of the Viet Nam economy and, as such, it offers real and financial sector forecasting and policy simulation capabilities targeted to the needs of the State Bank of Viet Nam. The model serves a dual purpose. First, it provides a framework for making rational and consistent predictions about Viet Nam's overall economic activity, the standard components of the balance of payments, and the production and expenditure concepts of the national accounts. Secondly, it offers a means of quantitatively evaluating the impact of exchange rate policies and other policy changes on the Vietnamese economy, and assessing the feedback effects that changes in key macroeconomic variables of the economy produce in other sectors. The modeling procedure has sought to account for the structure of the Viet Nam economy, the availability of data, and the degree of stability of time-series estimates of parameters during the country's transition process. The present model therefore aims to provide a mechanism to link policies and targets while, at the same time, providing an easy and adaptable means of both forecasting key macroeconomic variables and simulating the interrelationships between economic policy initiatives.

The study examines key trade policy and customs reform issues that need to be addressed as part of the Government of Egypt's comprehensive Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Program. The initial findings of this study point to the need for additional reforms in areas related to the tariff structure, customs regulations and procedures, export promotion, competitiveness, adjustments to the new WTO agreement, and working capital access. The internal consistency of these trade policy and customs reforms required consideration of the linkage to macroeconomic policy and the liberalization of the domestic market. The effectiveness of reforms in Egypt are shown to depend on their impact on the economic efficiency at the firm level, and on the degree to which they introduce greater international competitiveness. USAID/Egypt and Ministry of Economy and Foreign Trade of the Government of Egypt (90 pages). April 1994.

The report describes four clusters for organic vegetables along the East West Economic Corridor (EWEC). These clusters have three goals: (a) to foster the conversion of conventional agricultural farming to organic production, and thereby enable the generation of high value-added activities; (b) to promote linkages among micro and small scale producers, and thereby improve their competitive position within the value chain; and (c) to spur the development of agricultural activities affecting the majority of the EWEC population either directly or indirectly, and thereby enable the transformation of the EWEC transport and logistics corridor into a full-fledged economic corridor.

The booklet provides a practitioner’s guide to the organic vegetables value chain, with particular emphasis on its application in the East-West Economic Corridor (EWEC) of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). It offers an integrated approach to what is now the fastest growing segment of agriculture, namely, organic vegetables. Its application to the EWEC can take advantage of the areas’ agricultural resource-based activities and the Corridor’s time and cost-effective way of moving products to markets.

The report characterizes trade and market access conditions between Colombia and the United States, explains the types of quantitative methods generally used in quantifying trade liberalization schemes, provides empirical estimates of the trade relationship in the model at the detailed product and industry level, presents the results of the model simulations under different trade liberalization strategies, and examines production shifts likely to take place in export-oriented and import-substituting industries, and measures changes in output and employment. USAID/Colombia. April 2004

Pre-feasibility study on industry-specific activities between North Kalimantan and Sabah in medical tourism, higher education and TVET, tourism, rubber, wood products, palm oil, and fisheries. The report presents the findings of a pre-feasibility study on the development of Sabah’s potential areas of cross-border trade collaboration with North Kalimantan. It follows standard international practices for the steps needed to carry out such an analysis: First, it conceptualizes the interrelationship between different cross-border components that are needed to make the program successful in reaching well-defined objectives specified by the governments of Malaysia and Indonesia. Second, it determines the key project parameters in terms of location, financial requirements, technical support needed, gains to major beneficiaries, preliminary cost estimates, financial and economic feasibility, and implementation. As such, it largely focuses on methods to optimize each program component in conjunction with an in-depth analysis of subprojects that are needed to make the overall integrated program successful.

Pre-feasibility study on industry-specific activities between Sarawak and West Kalimantan in medical tourism, higher education & TVET, tourism, rubber, wood products, palm oil, fisheries, alumina and bauxite, and ship building. It offers a practical and implementable program to develop the Sarawak-West Kalimantan border area (within a broad geographic context), based on specific industry value chains. The study identifies concrete and high-impact projects that will advance implementation of an integrated border area development program for West Kalimantan. It maps the optimal configuration of Sarawak-West Kalimantan cross-border trade and investment in goods and services; and, concurrently, provides the design of a border area development plan for the two territories.

-- For Sarawak, the economic internal rate of return (EIRR) ranges from 16% to 22% for natural rubber, palm oil, medical tourism, TVET and higher education. The economic net present value (ENPV) are highest for medical tourism (nearly US$ 183 million) and palm oil (US$ 83 million). The economic benefits-cost ratios (EBCRs) range from 1.3 to 2.1.

Proposes a new strategy for BIMP-EAGA that relies on three key elements for revitalizing subregional cooperation and prioritizing emerging opportunities in the global and regional environment: (1) the recognition that the EAGA’s dynamic competitive advantage in the post-1997 must be grounded on its ability to regionalize production processes that generate economies of scale, give rise to ‘cross-hauling’ or two-way trade within the region, and augment the participating sub-regions’ export competitiveness outside the area; (2) the prioritization of project-specific policy parameters and regulatory incentives to enhance investment opportunities, particularly in agro-business and ecotourism with supporting infrastructure; and (3) the identification of viable opportunities for projects, programs and policy initiatives that support the revitalization of subregional cooperation in the new global and regional environment. A large portion of the report is dedicated to the identification of projects, programs and policy initiatives that need to complement existing regional and national development programs of each EAGA member country. Asian Development Bank. May 2004. Client only disclosure.

The study examines the empirical evidence and options for decoupling Asia from the US and EU markets. First, it demonstrates that the strong linkages both within Asia and between Asia and the United States and Europe have not waned in the last 25 years, though the transmission channels have become more complex. Second, the study finds that there are significant downside risks for the recovery of growth in the United States and Europe. Third, the types of goods produced in Asia as outsourcing for large enterprises is likely to incorporate more second-generation technology that could increasingly promote intra-regional production networks. Fourth, it shows that stock market indicators in Asia are highly correlated with the major financial centers in the United States and Europe. Finally, pegged and managed exchange rates will likely continue to form part of the policy tools used in most Asian economies, notwithstanding the lessons from the Asian financial crisis. A number of forwarding looking policy implications are derived from these findings.

Regional cooperation is emerging as a distinct development strategy for Micronesia. The new pattern of regionalism is based on innovative forms of collaboration that differ markedly from early cooperation efforts in the Pacific region. This new strategy is in line with the ADB’s overall strategic agenda for the developing island countries of the Pacific, and it parallels the Bank’s success in accelerating growth in the lesser developed regions of Southeast Asia. The implementation of so-called growth areas also lends support to a regional development strategy for Micronesia. The study formulates an action agenda for the development of regional cooperation in Micronesia, and it profiles a set of 85 regional projects, programs, policies and institutional initiatives identified as being able to be implemented immediately and made operational before the completion of the proposed action agenda. Asian Development Bank (ADB) Technical Assistance Study (TA 5660-REG). Vols. I and II (317 pages). August 1996.