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The study supports efforts by the Government of Uzbekistan to examine alternative liberalization strategies during the WTO negotiations. It reports on the results of an empirical and interactive model that measures the effects of alternative tariff reduction schemes on the economy. Product-specific estimates are provided for the direct effects of Uzbekistan’s trade liberalization in terms of trade creation, trade diversion, balance of payments, government revenue and consumer welfare. The calculations of these effects are based on import demand relationships estimated for individual products at the detailed tariff line. These estimates take into account changes in the levels of import demand arising from market access concessions, and time-related adjustments arising from the lagged response of imports to economic activity and price changes. USAID Regional Mission for Central Asia (75 pages). March 1998.